To save money, there'll just be one polling station - at Storey Park Community Centre - for the Town Council byelection on 23rd June. So - will people travel the mile or so from Allery Banks or Southgate Wood to vote? I know in South Africa and elsewhere, people walk 20 miles and more to vote, and queue for hours or days - but, despite heavy canvassing by the yellows and blues, I suspect Morpeth South voters won't be readily inclined to pop down to the polling station before or after work or squeeze it into their daily routine.
So - if voting intentions are linked to house type or neighbourhood character, as most parties assume - then the parties favoured by the neighbourhoods nearest Story Park - High Church, Deuchar Park (?) - might do better.
On the other hand - a lot of people will have, and use postal votes - but then, are certain parties favoured by people with postal votes? Perhaps it would have been better to make to by-election entirely postal?
But - in an election, with a likely turn-out of 20-30%, a couple of score of loyal party voters could swing it.
I hope Ron Forster has a big personal following! Vote for Ron on Thursday!