The similarities between the AV Referendum and the ill-fated North East Regional Assembly Referendum are uncanny, and do not bode well for the Yes campaign:
i) in both cases, the Cabinet is/was divided between Yes and No camps
ii) neither Referendum offers/ed the Yes campaign what it really wants/ed
iii) both are/were about quite complicated matters that need/ed an impartial explanation - but all explanation is/was being/een left to the campaigners, with the result there is/was a lot of misinformation flying around.
iv) both are tied to unrelated issues (reducing number of MPs, unitary local government) which will only muddy the water - and will be/was brought in whatever the referendum result
And if people do vote No - there'll be no way to distinguish between the 'No, we want to keep FPTP' and 'No, we want something better than this'
It isn't looking good for the Yes campaign...